AGP Executive Report

French Open Revenue Clash: Tennis stars at Roland Garros escalated their fight over revenue sharing and communication, with Novak Djokovic warning the sport could fracture further as players plan tighter media appearances and push for a fairer system that supports lower-ranked players. Serbia Energy Deal Watch: Serbia’s energy ministry says MOL has a two-week U.S. extension to wrap talks on buying a majority stake in NIS, Serbia’s key refinery—Belgrade’s president says he’s not optimistic about a deal by the Friday deadline. Cybersecurity: ESET reports GraphWorm malware using Microsoft OneDrive to hide command traffic, part of a broader China-aligned Webworm toolkit shift toward cloud-based stealth. Crime & Finance: Europol’s Project A.S.S.E.T. says it identified and traced major criminal assets across dozens of countries, including hundreds of bank accounts and crypto wallets. Local Economy Signals: Serbia’s annual inflation ticked up in April, driven mainly by higher utilities and fuel prices. Renewables Pipeline: SANY Renewable Energy says it will start building Serbia’s Alibunar wind farms, targeting first power in early 2028.

MOL–NIS Deadline Tension: Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić says he’s “not optimistic” about reaching a deal by Friday on Hungary’s MOL taking a majority stake in NIS, after the US set a May 22 deadline tied to sanctions—though Washington may extend talks. Energy & Renewables: SANY Renewable Energy says it has locked in EPC contracts for Serbia’s Alibunar wind parks (168 MW total) and expects first power in early 2028, while a separate discussion warns renewables plans must be matched with grid flexibility and smarter planning. Politics & Elections: Serbia adopted amendments to four electoral laws, with Brussels praising them as a step toward fairer polls, while opposition and observers call them mostly “cosmetic.” Rule of Law & Rights: The Council of Europe’s human rights commissioner says Serbia’s civic space is deteriorating, citing rising harassment of journalists and weak police response. Trade Friction: Bruegel warns Western Balkan firms face rising non-tariff barriers—border delays and EU regulatory complexity—despite deeper EU supply-chain integration. Global Watch: Djokovic backs a French Open media boycott over prize-money disputes, adding to the week’s pressure on sports’ pay structures.

EC Forecast Update: The European Commission cut its 2026 growth call for Serbia to 2.8% (from 3.3% earlier), but expects a rebound to 3.9% in 2027, citing EXPO 2027-linked public investment and rising wages and pensions, while warning of a temporary fiscal deficit of 3.2% and public debt edging to 45% of GDP. Serbia–Ukraine Trade Push: In Belgrade, Serbia and Ukraine signed a statement to resume free-trade agreement talks, with a joint statement and a business forum focused on boosting trade, investment, and cooperation in energy and infrastructure. AI Factory Move: CCIS and Orion Telekom launched work on a Serbian business language model using NVIDIA tech, aiming to speed up companies’ digital transformation. Energy & Industry: Serbia’s NIS talks with MOL remain “not going well,” while regional logistics firms warn new EU driver rules could raise costs and disrupt supply chains. Governance: EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos welcomed Serbia’s passage of four electoral laws as a step toward free and fair elections.

EBRD in Belgrade: The EBRD named Grzegorz Zielinski Managing Director for South‑Eastern Europe, with his regional headquarters based in Belgrade from June 1—an immediate signal that Serbia is central to regional investment and reform Growth Forecast: The European Commission expects Serbia’s economy to grow 2.8% in 2026 (3.9% in 2027), while noting a temporary fiscal deficit rise to 3.2% and public debt edging up to 45% of GDP NIS/MOL Deadline Pressure: President Vučić warned talks with MOL over NIS are “not going well” and said Serbia is hoping the US OFAC will understand its position as the May 22 deadline nears Ukraine Trade Reset: Serbia and Ukraine agreed to resume free‑trade agreement negotiations, with a joint statement signed in Belgrade as business ties and market access move back to the top of the agenda Logistics Strain: Transport firms warn new EU rules for professional drivers could raise costs and disrupt supply chains, adding to border delays and driver shortages Regional Politics: Tensions in northern Kosovo are rising ahead of snap parliamentary elections, after arrests tied to Serbia‑backed institutions sparked protests.

Serbia–Ukraine Trade Talks: Belgrade and Kyiv are pushing ahead on a free-trade agreement after President Vučić spoke by phone with Zelenskyy and confirmed Taras Kachka’s upcoming work in Belgrade, with both sides stressing “mutually beneficial agreements” and the European track. EU Enlargement Pressure: Five EU states (including Czechia) want “step-by-step” access to the Single Market for Western Balkans candidates, aiming to lock in reforms and reduce outside influence. Energy & Sanctions Deadline: Vučić says talks with Hungary’s MOL over NIS are “not going well” ahead of an OFAC licence expiry on May 22, while Serbia asks Washington for understanding. China Pivot: Vučić prepares for a five-day state visit to China, with Xi and Li Jinping set to meet him separately. Digital Economy: Orion Telekom and the Serbian Chamber of Commerce are teaming up to build a Serbian business AI language model. Security Watch: ESET reports a China-aligned Webworm targeting government bodies across Europe, including Serbia.

EU Enlargement Push: Austria, Czechia, Italy, Slovakia and Slovenia want Western Balkans candidates to enter the EU single market in stages—sector by sector (transport, energy, digital services, critical raw materials)—once they meet rules, with access potentially pulled back if reforms stall. Diplomatic Calendar: Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic will attend the EU–Western Balkans summit in Tivat on June 5 after talks with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. Tech & Industry: Orion Telekom and the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry back a Serbian business AI language model. Business Links: Serbia’s Chamber head Marko Čadež says Ukrainian trade is back near pre-war levels and that Ukraine’s Expo 2027 participation is still pending. Energy/Climate Policy: A World Bank report says carbon pricing reached $107bn globally in 2025, with Serbia among countries adding new carbon pricing tools. Security & Compliance: ESET warns of a China-aligned Webworm targeting government bodies across Europe, including Serbia.

Belgrade School Cyber Fallout: Parents are demanding answers after a Belgrade school district authorized $750,000 for “network security and restoration” while facing a near-$1m budget shortfall and ongoing technology problems tied to a cyber breach—questions now focus on transparency, why teachers’ pay was affected, and why computers were reportedly pulled. Serbia Energy Deal Watch: Former energy minister Zorana Mihajlovic says Serbia could step in to buy the Russian stake in NIS if talks with MOL fail, with OFAC timing and refinery operating conditions at the center of the dispute. Regional Infrastructure: A tender winner has been named for the Hungary–Serbia oil pipeline, a 14.5bn dinar project linking Horgos to Novi Sad. Global Business Signals: Prague Airport won Routes Europe 2026’s top award, while Stellantis’ Kragujevac output is expected to rise with new weekend shifts and hundreds of jobs. Diplomacy on the Move: Reports say a Ukrainian delegation—possibly led by Zelenskyy—could visit Serbia this week, alongside continued Serbia–Azerbaijan cooperation talks in Baku.

Tech & Industry: Serbia’s Macut opened the 68th Belgrade International Technical Fair, pitching EXPO 2027 and a push for science parks, AI and digital public services; the event runs to May 22 with 600 exhibitors from 31 countries. Energy & Deals: Former energy minister Zorana Mihajlovic says Serbia could seek to buy MOL’s Russian stake in NIS if no deal is reached, with an OFAC licence deadline looming May 22. Infrastructure: The Hungary–Serbia oil pipeline tender has a winner: a consortium led by MVM Juzna Bačka (with Maneks), worth 14.5bn dinars. Diplomacy: Vucic received Algeria’s ambassador in a farewell visit, while media reports point to a possible Ukrainian delegation visit later this week, potentially led by Zelenskyy. Economy Watch: The dinar-to-euro rate is RSD 117.3980. Security & Crime: A major cocaine seizure in France involved a motorcyclist carrying about €3.5m worth of drugs, and a separate wine-heist case saw a suspect plead guilty and face prison.

Drug Trafficking Crackdown: India’s first Captagon seizure—31.5 kg hidden inside a commercial chapati-cutter headed for Jeddah—puts the spotlight on West Asia’s “superhuman” stimulant supply chains and how Serbia’s region stays exposed to global trafficking routes. Belgrade Infrastructure: Belgrade’s Main Street resurfacing is set to start, with single-lane traffic and no parking during a five-day stretch, while patching begins May 19. Diplomacy in Baku: President Vučić met Kenya’s Ruto and Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev at the World Urban Forum, pushing economic cooperation and raising Kosovo-related concerns alongside energy and infrastructure plans. Climate Shock: Europe braces for a fast swing from Arctic cold to African heat, after storms and frost damage earlier in May. Digital Serbia: PM Đuro Macut says Serbia is continuing digitalisation of public administration and AI capacity-building, framing it as “results citizens feel.” Energy Policy Watch: CBAM is already disrupting regional electricity trading, with Serbia reporting lower liquidity and reduced cross-border flows.

Serbia-Azerbaijan Push: In Baku, Aleksandar Vučić hailed “very successful” talks with Ilham Aliyev and Azerbaijani firms, spotlighting energy and investment, including a planned gas-fired power plant near Niš and a push to lift trade turnover “five times” from today. Housing & Finance Agenda: At the UN World Urban Forum, William Ruto urged reform of the global financial system so Africa can unlock affordable housing, arguing countries needing concessional funding pay far more than richer economies. EU Education Snapshot: Eurostat data shows 95% of EU children in the key pre-primary age band are enrolled, while Serbia sits at about 79.5%—a gap that matters for future workforce readiness. Regional Politics Watch: Serbia’s Marko Đurić says Kosovo will not join the Council of Europe, while the wider region keeps debating EU integration and Schengen access. Markets: The dinar-to-euro median rate is 117.3945 RSD per euro. Tech & Security Noise: Germany dismantled a sanctions-evasion network tied to Russia’s defense and nuclear supply chains, underscoring how trade routes still shape risk.

NBA MVP Streak: Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just made history again, winning the NBA MVP for a second straight year and becoming the 14th player to take back-to-back crowns. Eurovision Shockwave: Bulgaria won Eurovision for the first time ever in Vienna, with Dara’s party anthem “Bangaranga” beating Israel’s Noam Bettan amid protests and a boycott-linked atmosphere. Serbia–Azerbaijan Business Push: In Baku, Aleksandar Vučić said Serbia wants trade turnover with Azerbaijan to be five times higher, pointing to direct flights Belgrade–Baku and opportunities in tourism, retail, spa and mountain resorts, and agriculture. Diplomacy in the Background: Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev and Vučić also highlighted energy and investment cooperation, while broader regional politics remain tense, including Kosovo’s instability and EU pressure.

Eurovision Shockwave: Bulgaria’s Dara won the 70th Eurovision in Vienna with “Bangaranga,” beating Israel’s Noam Bettan into second place as the final stayed tense and political amid protests and boycotts. Kosovo Instability: Kosovo is heading toward another snap election on June 7 after parliament failed to elect a president, deepening fears in Brussels about reform delays and EU drift. Serbia-Azerbaijan Ties: President Ilham Aliyev met Aleksandar Vučić, highlighting cooperation in energy, investment and direct Air Serbia flights on the Belgrade–Baku route. Russia’s Cultural Leverage: A new analysis argues EU sanctions haven’t stopped Russian cultural diplomacy networks from operating in Europe and promoting Kremlin narratives. Regional Energy Push (Serbia): Serbia reiterated its plan to act as a south-north energy hub, citing gas and power interconnectors and upcoming capacity upgrades. UK Parking Fallout: Britain’s NCP, after collapsing into administration, is trying to recover nearly 100,000 unpaid parking fines—raising fresh questions for drivers.

Eurovision Shock Winner: Bulgaria’s Dara won the 70th Eurovision in Vienna with “Bangaranga,” beating Israel’s Noam Bettan in a final that turned into a geopolitical flashpoint, with protests and a boycott over Israel’s participation. **Market Mood: European government bond yields jumped to multi-year highs as energy-driven inflation fears revived expectations of higher rates across the region. **Serbia Energy Positioning: Serbia is pushing to become a regional energy hub for south-north gas and power flows, citing interconnectors with Bulgaria and Romania and plans to expand transmission capacity under its 2030–2035 framework. **Kosovo EU Bid: Kosovo urged the EU to grant candidate status after EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said reforms and normalization with Serbia are key, while political instability and non-recognition by several EU states keep the process stuck. **Eurovision Politics Spillover: Spain’s boycott and wider criticism over Israel dominated the week, showing how the contest’s pop spectacle keeps colliding with real-world tensions.

Eurovision Tonight: The Eurovision 2026 grand final is set for Saturday in Vienna, with Greece’s Akylas (“Ferto”) and Cyprus’s Antigoni Buxton (“Jalla”) confirmed among the 25 finalists, and a new voting rule letting viewers cast ballots from the start of the show. Kosovo-EU Pressure: EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos visited Pristina and urged reforms and normalization with Serbia, while Kosovo’s leaders again demanded candidate status—despite five EU states not recognizing Kosovo and snap elections set for June 7. NIS Deal Watch: Serbia is preparing its final position to Hungary’s MOL on the NIS takeover, with the Pancevo refinery and domestic supply guarantees still the main sticking points, and a MOL board decision expected May 18. Belgrade Business Summit: President Aleksandar Vučić will skip Business Summit 2026 due to health reasons, with Milos Vucevic stepping in. Weather Alert: Serbia braces for a stormy weekend—thunderstorms, hail, and a sharp temperature drop.

Eurovision Tonight in Vienna: The 70th Eurovision Grand Final is set for 8pm UK time at Wiener Stadthalle, with 25 finalists after two semi-finals—yet the show is still shadowed by a boycott over Israel’s participation, with protests expected during the broadcast. Serbia’s NIS Deal Pressure: Serbia says it will deliver its final position to Hungary’s MOL on the takeover of NIS by end of day, with MOL’s board decision due Monday—Pancevo refinery operations and secure fuel supply remain the key sticking points. Belgrade Police Shake-up: The head of the Belgrade City Police Department was detained up to 48 hours as part of an investigation into the May 12 disappearance of A.N., while the Ministry says duties are temporarily handled by the deputy chief. Regional Energy Push: Ministers in Athens stressed energy security through grid links and the Vertical Gas Corridor, while Serbia also signals major gas infrastructure investment plans. Business Summit Attendance: President Vučić will miss Business Summit 2026 for health reasons, with an adviser taking his place.

NIS Deadline Crunch: Serbia says it will submit its final position to Hungary’s MOL on the takeover of NIS by end of day May 15, with MOL expected to respond by May 18—while the sticking point remains the future operation of the Pančevo refinery and guarantees for domestic fuel supply. Kosovo & CoE: Serbian FM Marko Đurić says Pristina will not become a Council of Europe member today, warning the “danger” isn’t gone. Belgrade Police Shake-up: The head of the Belgrade City Police Department has been detained up to 48 hours in an investigation tied to the May 12 disappearance of A.N., while the MUP says the chief was removed and duties shift to the deputy. EU Politics: Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos links any EU talks on Kosovo to constructive engagement with Serbia and inclusive resolution of issues. Weather Watch: Serbia braces for a stormy weekend with thunder, hail and flash-flood risk. Business Summit 2026: President Vučić will skip the Belgrade summit for health reasons, with Milos Vucevic stepping in. Eurovision Final: Bulgaria’s DARA qualifies and will perform entry #12 in Saturday’s final in Vienna.