AGP Executive Report

EU Enlargement Push: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron urged faster EU enlargement at the EU–Western Balkans summit in Montenegro, proposing incentives like gradual single-market access and simplified accession steps. Western Balkans Summit Finance: The EU also unveiled a 6bn-euro facility to speed reforms and bring candidates closer economically, with Montenegro’s EU path said to be “within reach” for a 2028 target. Serbia–China Industry Upgrade: A new wave of Serbian manufacturing modernization is being powered by Chinese tech transfer, with firms adopting “Chinese brain” digital systems on production lines after the China–Serbia Free Trade Agreement. UAE–Serbia Ties: Serbia’s PM Đuro Macut met UAE FNC Speaker Saqr Ghobash, highlighting CEPA’s role in boosting non-oil trade and investment and expanding cooperation across sectors. Kosovo Political Instability: Kosovo is set for a third parliamentary election in 18 months on June 7, as voters and parties remain stuck in an institutional deadlock that keeps blocking stable majorities. Albania Resort Backlash: In Albania, protests are growing against a Kushner-linked luxury resort near protected wetlands, with environmental concerns and an anti-corruption probe adding pressure.

EU-Western Balkans Summit: EU leaders and Balkan officials met in Tivat, Montenegro, to push faster enlargement and deeper economic inclusion, backed by a €6bn facility aimed at accelerating reforms and integration. Serbia’s EU Path: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said Serbia supports Macron-Merz’s non-paper on gradual EU integration, with expectations to open new accession clusters soon. Trade & Investment: Serbia and South Korea moved closer to a comprehensive economic partnership/free-trade deal after talks in Belgrade, with cooperation flagged in trade, investment protection and business frameworks. Aviation Business Risk: Wizz Air warned Serbia’s new aviation rules could force it to close its Belgrade base from November 2026, threatening about 150 jobs and routes. Energy & Industry Links: Serbia and Uzbekistan discussed expanding trade and projects across textiles, pharma, agriculture, transport/logistics and energy, while Serbia also continued energy cooperation talks with partners. Albania Resort Protests (Regional Watch): Thousands protested a Kushner-backed €1.6bn luxury resort near protected wetlands, with SPAK launching a probe over environmental and legal issues—an example of how investment plans can collide with governance and sustainability.

Serbia–South Korea Trade Deal: Serbian PM Djuro Macut and South Korean Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo signed the joint statement ending talks on a comprehensive economic partnership, setting up a free trade framework and investment cooperation. EU Enlargement Summit in Montenegro: Serbia’s EU path stayed in focus at the EU–Western Balkans summit in Tivat, with leaders pushing faster access to the single market and reforms as geopolitical pressure from Russia and China grows. Energy Security Talks: Serbia confirmed another three-month extension of Russian gas supplies after talks with Gazprom, while also discussing NIS and gas cooperation. Aviation Regulation Clash: Wizz Air warned new Serbian rules for foreign carriers could force it to close its Belgrade base and reduce routes, urging EU intervention. Digital Finance Push: Serbia’s Ministry of Finance launched an international tender for a “one-stop-shop” capital markets portal to centralize data and connect issuers, regulators and investors. Renewables Deal in Banat: Chinese-backed SANY Renewable Energy took majority control of the Alibunar wind farm project after the sale of the 168 MW portfolio, boosting Serbia’s clean power pipeline. Tourism & Politics Spillover: Albania protests over a Kushner-linked €1.4bn luxury resort near protected wetlands dominated regional headlines, underscoring how investment deals can quickly turn into political and environmental flashpoints.

CEPA Trade Deal: South Korea and Serbia signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement in Belgrade, cutting tariffs on 90% of traded items and aiming to boost access for Korean exports like chips, electric vehicles and auto parts while easing Serbian inputs such as lithium, cobalt and nickel. EU Enlargement Push: EU leaders are set to meet in Montenegro’s Tivat to speed up Western Balkans integration and deepen single-market access, with enlargement framed as both a security investment and a reform-driven process. Belgrade–EU Dialogue: European Council President António Costa told Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić enlargement is a “geostrategic necessity” but depends on trust-building and reforms, with the Belgrade–Pristina dialogue and Ohrid Agreement highlighted. Aviation Dispute: Wizz Air accused Serbia of moves that could force closure of its Belgrade base from November 2026, warning of job losses and reduced connectivity, and arguing the plan conflicts with EU aviation rules. Energy Security: Serbia’s energy minister said Gazprom confirmed a three-month extension of gas supplies beyond June 30 and discussed expanding Banatski dvor storage, while also raising the long-running NIS sanctions issue. Regional Diplomacy: Serbia’s PM Djuro Macut met UAE officials to expand trade and investments under the free trade agreement, with AI and education flagged as priorities. Albania Resort Protests: Thousands protested in Tirana against a Kushner-linked luxury coastal project, with environmental groups warning of damage to protected wetlands and corruption concerns as authorities face mounting pressure.

Energy Security: Serbia’s energy minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic said Gazprom confirmed a three-month extension of gas supplies beyond June 30 and discussed expanding the Banatski dvor underground storage capacity from 450 to 750. She also flagged ongoing pressure around NIS under US sanctions and the need for a solution acceptable to Washington. EU & Reforms: EU Council President Antonio Costa told Belgrade the bloc’s enlargement is a “geostrategic necessity” but depends on trust-building and reforms, with Belgrade urged to accelerate rule-of-law and alignment with EU foreign policy. Aviation: Wizz Air warned Serbia’s March civil aviation rule changes could force it to close its Belgrade base from November, arguing the amendments would breach obligations under the EU Common Aviation Area; Serbia says the framework applies equally. Sanctions & NIS: MOL asked for more time with OFAC for talks on buying a Russian-majority stake in NIS, while Serbia continues shareholder negotiations involving Gazprom Neft. UAE Ties: Serbia’s PM Djuro Macut met UAE FNC speaker Saqr Ghobash, highlighting room to grow trade under the free trade deal and pushing cooperation in education and AI. Business Expansion: Serbian agri-machinery maker FPM Agromehanika plans a Zambia plant in Lusaka to assemble and export equipment across southern Africa. Trade & Currency: The dinar’s official median rate was 117.3861 RSD per euro. Regional Investment Push: The EU approved talks to extend “Roam Like at Home” to the Western Balkans, aiming to boost connectivity for citizens and business.

Consumer Protection Overhaul: Serbia adopted a new Consumer Protection Law that tightens pricing and discount transparency (including unit pricing), strengthens online shopping rules, adds clearer duties around digital content/services and online reviews, and pushes out-of-court dispute resolution—though businesses, especially smaller firms, may face higher compliance costs. Energy Deal Under US Sanctions: Hungary’s MOL asked the US OFAC for another 30 days to finish talks on buying a majority stake in Russia-linked NIS, with NIS also expected to seek an extension of its operating licence that expires June 16. EU Accession Scrutiny: The European Parliament’s AFET committee backed EU membership ambitions for Serbia and others, but flagged Serbia’s “appeasing approach” problem—calling for measurable progress in rule of law, elections, anti-corruption, judicial independence, media freedom and public administration reform. UAE-Serbia Business Diplomacy: UAE Federal National Council Speaker Saqr Ghobash told Serbia’s parliament the UAE sees Serbia as a strategic partner and wants deeper parliamentary cooperation to boost investments and development. Albania Tourism Protest Fallout: In Albania, thousands protested a Kushner-linked €1.4bn luxury resort near the Vjosa-Narta protected wetland, with demonstrators clashing with police and accusing the project of threatening habitats and public access. Trade Links Boost: Uzbekistan appointed Serbian businessman Vladimir Ribić as its Chamber of Commerce and Industry representative in Serbia, aiming to expand trade and joint business initiatives. Sports Economy Angle: Juventus confirmed Dusan Vlahovic will leave as a free agent after contract talks stalled over salary demands.

UAE–Serbia Political Ties: UAE Federal National Council Speaker Saqr Ghobash told Serbia’s parliament that parliamentary diplomacy can boost investment, development and trust, with cooperation mechanisms and joint positions in regional forums on the agenda. Finland–Serbia Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Marko Đurić wrapped up talks in Helsinki with President Alexander Stubb, stressing Serbia’s push for a Europe at peace and reaffirming support for Serbia’s EU path. NIS Ownership Talks: MOL asked the US OFAC for 30 more days to finish talks on acquiring a Russian stake in NIS, with deadlines now tied to potential further licence extensions. Energy Security Watch: The Energy Community says gas storage rules are improving security across South East and Eastern Europe, noting Serbia met early-2026 trajectories and targets. Belgrade–EXPO 2027: Serbia signed a contract enabling Gabon’s participation in EXPO 2027 in Belgrade, with 138 countries already confirmed. Regional Trade Friction: Serbia reported major border delays with Croatia for freight exiting Serbia after Croatia introduced a new customs information system. Bosnia Peace Process: The PIC is set to pick a new High Representative after Christian Schmidt’s resignation, with multiple candidates backed by different countries. Mining & Exploration: Terra Balcanica secured a 3-year exploration licence in Bosnia’s Viogor project area near Srebrenica, while DPM Metals announced a new high-grade gold-copper porphyry discovery near Chelopech. Protests in Albania: Thousands protested a Kushner-linked €1.4bn resort near protected coastal wetlands, raising fresh pressure on regional tourism and investment plans.

Mining & Metals: Minrex Resources has kicked off a major drilling push at its Barje gold and silver deposit near Bosilegrad, aiming to upgrade resources and fund a new scoping study, with 7,000 meters planned and lab results expected by September. Exploration Update: Bindi Metals started Euro-summer drilling at Serbia’s Ravni gold project, hitting broad sulphide-bearing alteration at Drenjak as assays are awaited. Energy & Reform: Serbia’s PM Djuro Macut says Reform Agenda implementation is key to unlocking EU Growth Plan funds, with focus on energy, justice and internal affairs. EU & Migration: The EU moves toward stricter return rules and “return hubs” as enlargement becomes a stated priority for the Western Balkans, including Serbia. Finance & Markets: Serbia’s dinar-to-euro rate is reported around RSD 117.4. Diplomacy for Business: Serbia’s foreign minister Marko Đurić says Finland reaffirmed unequivocal support for Serbia’s EU path and discussed economic cooperation. Local Economy: Belgrade says drinking water remains safe after a water system emergency put two municipal wells under repair, while irrigation restrictions stay in effect. Trade & Industry: Serbia–China cooperation is shifting toward AI and robotics, with new agreements and investment pledges highlighted by the Serbian Chamber of Commerce.

EU Growth Warning: President Aleksandar Vučić tells Bloomberg that protectionism is “killing” Europe and that the bloc is sleepwalking into economic ruin, pointing to barriers to investment between Europe, China and the US and warning that productivity is the key challenge. Serbia–China Business Push: Serbia’s Chamber chief says cooperation with China is shifting toward AI and robotics, citing nearly €950m in new joint projects and a surge in exports to China. Energy & Industry Talks: Serbia’s finance minister Sinisa Mali says progress is being made with Hungary’s MOL on its planned acquisition of a Russian-majority stake in NIS, with a response expected by June 3 or June 4. Local Economy & Jobs: FPM Agro Mechanic, a Serbian multinational, starts building an agricultural equipment plant in Zambia’s Lusaka zone to serve local demand and exports. Markets Watch: The dinar’s official median rate is 117.4148 RSD per euro. Tech Finance Deal: NMI acquires Fee Navigator to add AI-powered pricing intelligence to its embedded payments platform. Diplomacy: Finland reaffirmed “unequivocal” support for Serbia’s EU future after talks with Marko Đurić.

Serbia’s Growth Beat: Serbia’s GDP rose 3.2% year-on-year in Q1 2026 (and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter), with exports up and household consumption climbing 4.8%, outpacing EU growth (1%) and the eurozone (0.8%). Energy Deals: EPS and SOCAR signed basic terms for a gas-fired power plant in Niš, targeting up to 500 MW by 2030 to boost energy security and diversify supply. EV Battery Push: ElevenEs in Subotica has started building Europe’s first electric car battery factory, with training under way for the first 110 workers. Fuel Costs Relief: The government extended temporary excise duty cuts on petroleum products until June 7, lowering per-liter rates for gasoline and gas oil. Mining Expansion: Minrex began drilling at the Barje gold deposit to upgrade resources and support a scoping study by year-end as gold prices strengthen the business case. EU Path Politics: EU enlargement remains “real,” EU Council President António Costa said ahead of a Western Balkans summit in Montenegro, while the EU ambassador urged Serbian authorities to better counter disinformation and explain EU benefits. Digital & Business Climate: Interviews highlight faster digitalisation needs (ERP/AI) and how CBAM is becoming a direct financial pressure on Serbian firms’ investment decisions.

Energy Deal: EPS and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR signed basic terms for a gas-fired power plant in Niš, aiming for up to 500 MW of baseload capacity by 2030 and setting up a joint company framework. EU Accession Politics: EU Delegation head Andreas von Beckerath urged Serbian authorities to do more to present an objective case for EU membership and to counter disinformation, citing survey results showing support at 39.8%. Border Dispute Risk: Serbian EU integration minister Nemanja Starović warned Croatia could try to block Serbia’s EU path over Danube border disputes, potentially tying ratification to territorial claims. FX Watch: The dinar’s official median rate moved to 117.4037 per euro, while the dollar rate edged to 100.7930 dinars. Media & Ownership: Journalists’ groups raised concerns after United Group agreed to sell Adria News Network outlets to Alpac Capital, warning about editorial independence risks. Weather Alerts: Serbia faces unstable conditions with showers and thunderstorms; an orange warning is in place for heavy downpours and storms.

Media & Ownership Watch: Alpac Capital reached an agreement to buy Adria News Network from United Group, a deal that has triggered fresh concern from the European Federation of Journalists about uncertainty for outlets like N1, Nova S, Vijesti and Danas, with more than 1,000 media workers and 16m+ audience potentially affected. Energy & Infrastructure: Serbia is moving on gas security with plans for new interconnections with North Macedonia and Romania within two years, while the state has also started the formal Environmental Impact Assessment process for a Hungary–Novi Sad oil pipeline (113 km) after Hungary confirmed it won’t join the cross-border procedure. Rail & Regional Connectivity: Serbia published details for a high-speed Corridor 10 upgrade through North Macedonia under the ESPOO EIA framework, aiming to replace slow tunnels and modernize the line toward Greece. Mining & Exploration: Mundoro Capital and BHP are continuing intensive copper and gold exploration near Bor, with lab results expected in June for the Skorusa project. Capital Markets / FX: Serbia and China’s central banks signed a new EUR 630m bilateral currency swap agreement, reinforcing local-currency trade and financing cooperation. Diplomacy for Business: UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed spoke with Aleksandar Vučić about expanding ties under the UAE–Serbia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, including renewable energy. Corporate Dealmaking: Regener8 secured 100% ownership of the Srebrenica North polymetallic project in Bosnia, clearing the way for maiden exploration toward drill-ready targets.

Serbia–China Finance: The National Bank of Serbia and the People’s Bank of China signed a new five-year bilateral currency swap worth 5 billion yuan (about EUR 630m), aimed at supporting financial stability and boosting trade and economic ties. Media Ownership Watch: Alpac Capital agreed to buy Adria News Network from United Group/Summer Parent, with the deal framed as protecting editorial independence; separately, the privatization pipeline still lists multiple state firms that could see tenders in 2026. Energy & Industry: Experts urged companies to prioritize energy efficiency first, while Serbia’s energy ministry outlined major planned investment (EUR 14.4bn for 2028–2035) across generation, grids and gas links. Transport & Rail: Stadler won a contract to supply Montenegro with three FLIRT electric train sets, with cross-border compatibility with Serbia highlighted. Regional Trade Framework: Serbia is set to benefit from updated EAEU free-trade provisions and new EAEU trade talks, as the bloc pushes deeper cooperation with third countries. Business Climate: A new list of state-owned companies shows which privatizations may move forward and which remain blocked by disputes and litigation.

Serbia–China Finance: The National Bank of Serbia and the People’s Bank of China signed a new five-year bilateral currency swap worth 5 billion yuan (about EUR 630m), aimed at supporting financial stability and boosting trade and economic ties. Energy & Industry: Serbia’s energy-efficiency push is getting a spotlight, with experts urging companies to cut consumption first while the state plans major energy spending (EUR 14.4bn from 2028–2035) to expand power generation and grid capacity. Privatization Watch: Serbia’s privatization list remains open, with potential tenders for several state firms (including Toza Marković and others), while big names like Simpo, Trayal and Tigar are still not on the imminent auction track due to legal and restructuring hurdles. Media Ownership: Alpac Capital agreed to acquire Adria News (ANN) from United Group, positioning the buyer as aligned with editorial independence after United Group’s regional media consolidation. EAEU Trade Moves: EAEU leaders in Astana backed new trade steps, including free-trade talks with Tunisia and updated Serbia-related rules to simplify customs clearance, while also pushing digitisation and AI cooperation across the bloc. China–Serbia Tech & Jobs: During President Vučić’s China visit, cooperation on advanced manufacturing and humanoid robots was highlighted, with Minth Group showcasing robotics and signaling further robot production in Serbia.

EAEU Integration Push: Leaders in Astana backed deeper Eurasian Economic Union digitisation and AI cooperation, with trade turnover and GDP growth targets on the table, while also launching free-trade talks with Tunisia and updating Serbia-related customs rules to speed clearance. Serbia–China Industrial Leap: President Vučić highlighted robotics and AI ties during visits to Chinese firms, including plans to produce humanoid robots in Serbia with Minth Group, as youth exchange programmes showcase skills transfer. Energy & Gas Market Reform: Serbia moves toward a more open regional gas market as it joins the RBP capacity allocation mechanism, aligning with EU network rules and expected to start using it in July. Transport & Connectivity Milestone: Air Serbia marked one million passengers on its long-haul network, including resumed Belgrade–Toronto flights after a 34-year gap. Media Ownership Watch: Journalists’ groups raised concerns after Alpac Capital agreed to buy Adria News Network outlets in the region, warning about risks to editorial independence. Energy Sector Funding Talks: Serbia’s mining and energy minister met the World Bank to discuss a multi-stage gas sector development programme focused on interconnections and supply security. FX Snapshot: The dinar’s official median rate against the euro was 117.4175.

Media Ownership Watch: Serbia’s Adria News Network deal is moving ahead: Alpac Capital has agreed to buy the group behind N1 and Nova S, but journalists’ unions and media watchdogs warn the sale could undermine pluralism and editorial independence, especially given Alpac’s stake in Euronews. Energy & Industry: The World Bank’s Serbia office and Mining & Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic discussed a new multi-stage gas development programme focused on supply security, new interconnections and infrastructure upgrades. Rail Finance: Serbia’s government adopted a draft guarantee for a Deutsche Bank-backed loan (with CESCE support) to finance 30 new electric trains for Srbijavoz, worth about EUR 263.9m in guarantees. Renewables Grid Bottleneck: RES Serbia says amendments are effectively pausing grid connection studies for wind and solar until late 2029, threatening projects and bank guarantees. Solar Tender Delays: EPS suspended a tender for supervision of state solar plants after bids failed to meet conditions. Transport Policy: From July 1, category 4 trucks that don’t pay tolls electronically via TAG devices face fines, with Toll4All registration required. China Finance: The PBC and NBS expanded their yuan-dinar swap to 5 bln yuan (74 bln dinars) for five years to support trade and investment. Aviation Milestone: Air Serbia says it carried one million passengers on long-haul routes since 2016, highlighting renewed Belgrade–Toronto flights.